1
1
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
The US stocks moved mostly higher over the course of the trading day on Thursday.
With the upward move, the major averages partly offset the steep losses posted in
the two previous sessions. Dow increased by 0.5 per cent to 26,201 and the Nasdaq
surged by 1.1 percent to 7,873.
The UK stocks fell on Thursday to extend losses for the fourth straight session, as
investors reacted to the surprise new U.S. tariffs on European goods and weak data
showing that the U.K. economys dominant services sector shrank in September
amid a deepening economic slowdown. The FTSE 100 fell by 0.7 percent to 7,077.
On domestic front, Indian fell on Thursday to extend losses for the fourth straight
session, as the sell-off in world stock markets gathered pace and caution prevailed
ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review due on Friday. The
benchmark BSE Sensex declined by 0.5 percent to 38,107.
Addition to Top picks
Stock: Larsen & Toubro Cmp: `1,458 Tgt: `1,850 Upside: 26.9%
Stock: Ultratech Cement Cmp: `4,147 Tgt:`4,982 Upside: 20.1%
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company
Rating
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Blue Star
Accumulate
795
867
9.0
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
427
490
14.7
Parag Milk Foods
Buy
154
306
98.3
Bata India
Accumulate
1,687
1,865
10.5
KEI Industries
Accumulate
527
612
16.2
More Top Picks on Pg4
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
-0.5
-199
38,107
Nifty
-0.4
-46
11,314
Mid Cap
-0.3
-42
13,844
Small Cap
-0.4
-49
12,910
Bankex
-0.9
-291
32,088
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
0.5
122
26,201
Nasdaq
1.1
87
7,873
FTSE
-0.7
-46
7,077
Nikkei
-0.8
-170
21,878
Hang Seng
-0.3
-88
25,954
Shanghai Com
0.1
3
2,932
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
935
700
Declines
1,572
1,131
Unchanged
144
116
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
2,524
NSE
34,651
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
FII
(747)
(3,503)
(2,50,886)
*MFs
590
7,877
45,428
Top Gainers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
MRPL
51
6.9
BPCL
532
7.7
TATAMOTORS
122
6.2
ZEEL
251
7.9
ITI
85
5.8
Top Losers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
EDELWEISS
87
-9.9
BSOFT
62
-7.1
DELTACORP
154
-6.4
RELINFRA
26
-6.1
GODREJIND
382
-6.1
As on Oct 03, 2019
2
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
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Addition to Top picks:
Stock: Larsen & Toubro Cmp:`1,458 Tgt:`1,850 Upside: 26.9%
L&T is India’s largest EPC company with strong presence across various verticals
including Infra, Hydrocarbon and services segment. The company also has a very
strong presence in the IT services and NBFC space through it’s various subsidiary
companies which are also growth drivers for the company. Management had
indicated a very strong pipeline for FY20 of INR 9lakh cr. which includes both
domestic as well as international orders. The company has a strong order backlog
of ~INR 3lakh cr. and the pipeline provides strong visibility for new order flows for
the rest of the year. We are positive on the prospects of the Company given the
Government’s thrust on Infrastructure with over 100lakh cr. of investments lined up
over the next 5 years. Reduction in tax rate for domestic companies to 22% from
30% will improve profitability by ~15% for the company
Stock: Ultratech Cement Cmp:`4,147 Tgt:`4,982 Upside: 20.1%
Ultratech Cement is India’s largest cement manufacturer with ~100mn TPA of
capacity spread across the country with a strong presence in Central, North, and
West India. The company has added capacity be taking over stressed assets of
over ~30mn TPA since 2017. Company would also be taking over Century
textile’s cement capacity of 13.4mn TPA from H2FY20 which will give it 40% plus
market share in West and Central India which are amongst the best
regions. We are positive on the long term prospects of the Company given ramp
up from acquired capacities, pricing discipline in the industry and benign energy &
freight costs. Reduction in tax rate for domestic companies to 22% from 30% will
improve profitability by ~15% for the company.
Economic and Political News
Govt says Saudi crisis over, oil firms expect fuel prices to come down
Kerala finance minister Thomas Isaac blames 'mess in GST' for low mop-up
Govt says will shield small retailers, US calls for fair e-commerce policy
Corporate News
HDIL directors Sarang Wadhawan, Rakesh Wadhawan arrested in PMC Bank
case
Apollo Global to invest up to $150 million in Altico
YES Bank stock jumps nearly 33% as concerns over promoter pledge ease
3
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Top Picks
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Blue Star
7,660
795
867
9.0
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
ICICI Bank
2,76,018
427
490
14.7
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
KEI Industries
4,157
527
612
16.2
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Maruti Suzuki
2,03,972
6,752
8,552
26.7
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Safari Industries
1,314
588
1,000
70.0
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
Parag Milk Foods
1,298
154
306
98.3
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank
6,69,102
1,223
1,310
7.1
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
M&M
69,948
563
724
28.7
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Amber Enterprises
2,750
875
1,003
14.7
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
Bata India
21,686
1,687
1,865
10.5
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
4
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
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Continued...
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Shriram Transport Finance
23,417
1,032
1,385
34.2
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
9,782
96
250
160.7
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
2,185
1,495
1,740
16.4
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
RBL Bank
13,428
312
540
73.1
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
level ROA (1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige
8,438
6,087
7,708
26.6
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a
single product company to offering an entire
gamut of home and kitchen appliances. We
are expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and
25% in PAT over FY2018-20. Maintain Hold.
Larsen & Toubro
2,04,645
1,458
1,850
26.9
The company has a strong order backlog of
~` 3lakh cr. and a very strong pipeline of `9
lakh cr. for FY2020. We are positive on
the prospects of the Company given the
Government’s thrust on Infrastructure with
over 100lakh cr. of investments lined up over
the next 5 years. Reduction in tax rate
for domestic companies to 22% from 30% will
improve profitability for the company.
Ultratech Cement
1,13,909
4,147
4,982
20.1
Post merger of Century textile’s cement
division of 13.4mn TPA from H2FY20
company will have ~110mn TPA of capacity
with a dominant position in West and central
India. We are positive on the long term
prospects of the Company given ramp up
from acquired capacities and pricing
discipline in the industry. Reduction in tax rate
for domestic companies to 22% from 30% will
improve profitability for the company.
Source: Company, Angel Research
5
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
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Fundamental Call
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
CCL Products
3,132
235
360
52.9
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
Nilkamal
1,785
1,196
2,178
82.0
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India Ltd
2,004
2,528
2,500
-1.1
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries
1,902
155
256
65.1
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Finance Holding
16,414
82
150
82.8
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,030
220
549
149.9
Strong brands and distribution network would
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at
an inexpensive valuation.
Music Broadcast Limited
1,033
37
95
154.4
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Inox Winds
718
32
120
270.9
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable
energy industry dynamics in favor of wind energy
segment viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-
In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse auction regime and
Government’s guidance for 10GW auction in FY19
and FY20 each.
Ashok Leyland
19,844
68
156
130.8
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Aditya Birla Capital
17,356
79
118
49.7
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
33,979
580
890
53.5
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indian
Pharmaceutical companies, is well placed to face
the challenging generic markets, given its focus on
achieving growth through productivity. Aurobindo
will report net revenue & net profit CAGR of ~13%
& ~8% resp. during FY2018-20E. Valuations are
cheap V/s its peers and own fair multiples of 17-
18x.
Yes Bank
10,852
43
NA
NA
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
GIC Housing
747
139
NA
NA
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
4
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
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Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 24 Sep, 2019
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
6.0
6.8
7.7
8.1
8.0
7.0
6.6
5.8
5.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
(%)
4.6
8.4
0.2
2.5
1.6
0.2
2.7
3.2
4.6
1.2
4.3
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-
19
Jun-19
Jul-19
(%)
3.7
3.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
(%)
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
5.4
5.15
4.00
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
(%)
5
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
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Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 24 Sep, 2019
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7
6.8
0.7
5.2
5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
9.1
4.0
19.1
10.2
14.6
14.8
17.0
15.2
12.5
16.0
12.2
14.3
13.2
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(x)
6
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,01,134
-0.7
4.2
31.9
Russia
Micex
2,740
0.0
2.8
16.8
India
Nifty
11,023
-0.9
-7.5
-5.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,886
-1.6
-0.4
-1.5
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,406
-1.7
6.4
1.6
UK
FTSE
7,207
-5.0
0.6
-3.0
Japan
Nikkei
20,704
-3.8
0.5
-9.5
Germany
DAX
11,939
-2.1
1.8
-3.4
France
CAC
5,480
-0.7
0.2
1.4
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 30 August, 2019
7
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
8
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Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
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Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
9
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
October 04, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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